Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.
That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.
As always, follow the money:
On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.
Meanwhile, on the GOP side, according to The Washington Post:
Faced with a deteriorating political climate, Republican Party officials are hoping to keep control of the House and Senate with a strategy aimed at shoring up enough endangered incumbents to preserve their majorities, while scaling back planned spending on races that now appear unwinnable.
They aren't giving hard-right Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) any more dough now that he looks helpless against the Dem challenger. Per TPM Muckraker:
The national GOP isn't giving any money to help GOP Senator Rick Santorum hang on to his seat against Dem Bob Casey, raising questions about whether national Republican strategists have privately given up on the incumbent's campaign. Today's Patriot-News reports that neither the RNC nor the NRSC has reserved any air time at Pennsylvania TV stations for "independent expenditure ads for Santorum or against Casey.
Where is the national Republican operation moving its dollars? Talkingpointsmemo reader DK reports they spent $9.3 million today on races they shouldn't have to be fighting -- but because the Dems in each are coming on strong:
A whopping 99% of today's expenditure was for negative advertising.
What the heck, they've got nothing else to run on. Literally.
Look, I'm with Charlie. No chicken counting yet, not with their vaunted Get Out the Vote operation and their Diebold machines everywhere and their warships headed to Iran.
But it can't be a great run-up to an election when a month before the election your Party's headlines are investigation, investigation, conviction, insanity and failure.
My advice for the Dems is to take nothing for granted, but if your foot is on the GOP neck, start pressing.
Hard.
No comments:
Post a Comment