On a purely gameplay level and leaving aside any preferences along with possible comeback kid John Edwards, the Obama campaign has been surprising for it's reverse momentum.
Starting by gathering record crowds inspired by his mere entrance into the race, he's hurt himself with long, rambling speeches (I noticed this on C-SPAN awhile back), a message of bipartisanship at a time when the other party has proven itself worthy of only mistrust, ill-defined positions other than hope/change, and being slow to make himself known on contentious legislation (second only to Clinton herself, but she is the establishment candidate in this race).
Rumors circulated this past week that donors are asking why he's not going after Clinton for real, just as he lost a fundraiser to her campaign. So now The New York Times reports that "Obama Promises a Forceful Stand Against Clinton":
The interview came amid growing signs that Mr. Obama was looking for a fresh start for his campaign after nine months in which his aides said they were startled by the effectiveness of Mrs. Clinton’s campaign, and worried that her support was not as brittle as they had once believed...
...Mr. Obama said he was not concerned by a repeated spate of national polls showing lopsided support for Mrs. Clinton. “The national press for the last three months has written glowingly about her and not so much about me, so it’s not surprising,” he said. He described himself as an “underdog” running against a campaign that has “a 20-year head start when it comes to managing the spin of the national politics.”
Well, he's nailed the problem, and it's exactly why he shouldn't be going after Clinton, except in contrast by making it crystal clear what he stands for and taking on the front-running Republicans by name instead. He's the one who's supposed to be running the positive, new campaign, but we still don't know what he stands for other than a sea change in Presidential racial preconceptions. John Edwards is promising to be our age's FDR. Obama is claiming he's work across the aisle and reduce partisanship in D.C. Which is the stronger message?
The bigger issue at hand after too many Presidential elections where the Democratic candidate is fatally branded as weak, I'm not really hearing that on the GOP side about Hillary. They're trying to make you scared of her, the opposite of their approach with Kerry, Gore, Dukakis, Mondale, even Humphrey. More than anything else, the Democrats need a candidate who knows how to fight, per Jim Malone (Sean Connery) in David Mamet's dialogue for The Untouchables:
"You wanna know how to get Capone? They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He sends one of yours to the hospital, you send one of his to the morgue. *That's* the *Chicago* way! And that's how you get Capone. Now do you want to do that? Are you ready to do that?"
Barack is in no way less likely to get smeared by the GOP in the general election than Hillary, I think it's a myth that any Democrat's Fox-fed negatives will be any less than hers by the time ballots are cast. Her 20 years are two decades spent fighting back against the vast right-wing conspiracy and, with the instructive exception of her national healthcare proposal, winning. On the other hand, Obama has never faced a seriously threatening GOP challenger. Ever.
As echoed by one of Andrew Sullivan's perceptive readers:
Clinton hasn't been overly specific on policy, either, but during the debates this summer we got to see how she'd handle the Swift Boats next year -- with competence and a spine of steel. As much as I'm emotionally drawn to Obama, his performances in the debates and on the stump have been less than stellar. It's all too easy to imagine him getting his ass kicked by the GOP and losing in a landslide to a thuggish dictator like Giuliani. Clinton may never reach the 52% she'd need to win the election -- but so far, she's the only one who looks like she can give as good as she gets. And whoever wins the Democratic nomination will face a hell of attacks the likes we've never seen.
The way I read it, the Clinton campaign has gone easy on Obama in public, responding as necessary but letting him self-destruct (i.e. the anti-gay minister bobble this past week). In response, it looks like he's going to trot out Social Security, in all likelihood handing the Republicans an issue and (God forbid) opening the door to private accounts. I seriously doubt he'll be able to knock Hillary off her perch with it, as her campaign staff is just too deep, and she's a very, very quick study.
But his staff has got to be sweating with the news that Clinton is no longer just taking a pass on Iowa:
The decision of Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign to send 100 or more new staffers into Iowa demonstrates that she and her aides have determined to their own satisfaction that she can cripple Barack Obama in the first-in-the-nation caucus.
Up to now I've liked Obama as a person, a presence, and I've thought from some of the stories told by those who've played on basketball teams with him that he's got leadership and fighting skills. But if he muddies the Social Security waters for vainglorious political gain, I'll never forgive him.
Kevin Drum offers excellent advice for Barack Obama if he wants to set himself apart and recapture the imagination of both Democrats and independents:
(1) Propose that the United States unilaterally offer to reopen its embassy in Tehran. Ditto for Cuba and North Korea (and Bhutan, I suppose, though I don't really know what the deal is with them). Make the point that we live in dangerous times, and diplomatic relations should be used as a way of more effectively dealing with the world, not as a way of making self-righteous statements of approval or disapproval about specific regimes.
(2) Propose a specific list of Bush administration executive orders that he would rescind. No shilly-shallying, just a flat promise to revoke them. Possibilities include the orders governing torture, military commissions, and FISA. If he wanted to be even bolder, he could categorically promise to halt the use of presidential signing statements.
Show us some real fight. Show us some real menschiness. Show us some cajones. Don't just go after some little lady.
Especially when that little lady knows how to pull a gun.
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