Frothy

Willard Mitt Romney may end up squeaking out a win in Iowa with the smallest winning percentage in GOP history (worse than Bob Dole's 26% in 1996), but it's going to be cold comfort. He's not feeling like a leader, more like a shill, who's has yet to be fully challenged over his bald-faced lies about his eventual opponent, a President who kills terrorists with efficiency and is presiding over a slow but clear recovery.

While I have no love for Rick Santorum's political views, he deserves credit for his late surge to second, almost first place in Iowa. Massively outspent, he did the retail politics right, visiting every single county in Iowa. Will the evangelicals nationwide coalesce around him as they did in Iowa? Or is Romney simply the next in line, which is always the GOP nominee? With the Bush political team behind him, the most professional organization and all the money in the world, including Mormon money, it's hard to imagine he won't be debating Obama next fall.

Bye-bye Rick Perry, who had tons of dough but screwed the pooch spectacularly. Michelle Bachmann says she'll go on but she won't have the money or organization -- then again, not much of what comes out of her mouth is ever true.

As for Newt, who a few weeks ago said it would be hard not to imagine him as the nominee, the fall has been swift and swiftboated by the Romney PACs, and I think it will be irreversible.

Ron Paul, of course, will keep going with the most committed volunteers and supporters of the bunch. If they GOP establishment doesn't treat him right, it could be all the way to a third party candidacy, giving Obama that landslide I've been predicting.

Any chance Mittens would make Ron his Veep?

A Solid Endorsement

I have as many problems with Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) as Andrew Sullivan and am not with him on as many issues, but he was right on the Iraq War and the Patriot Act. He's not a liar, he's not a GOP/FOX grifter and he's not an authoritarian. I've said for a long time that he would be the smartest nomination the Republicans could make, a real statement that would crystallize issues.

It's a little scary that Sullivan has written his endorsement so well today, just as he did for Obama four years ago, the first such endorsement I saw and the piece of writing that influenced me to really look at Obama, take him seriously as a candidate. Hopefully, we stay the course for four more years. Obama's the best Republican President since Eisenhower, and I'm hoping since Theodore Roosevelt by the end of his second term.

Here's a few key paragraphs that I agree with:

And I see in Paul none of the resentment that burns in Gingrich or the fakeness that defines Romney or the fascistic strains in Perry's buffoonery. He has yet to show the Obama-derangement of his peers, even though he differs with him. He has now gone through two primary elections without compromising an inch of his character or his philosophy. This kind of rigidity has its flaws, but, in the context of the Newt Romney blur, it is refreshing. He would never take $1.8 million from Freddie Mac. He would never disown Reagan, as Romney once did. He would never speak of lynching Bernanke, as Perry threatened. When he answers a question, you can see that he is genuinely listening to it and responding - rather than searching, Bachmann-like, for the one-liner to rouse the base. He is, in other words, a decent fellow, and that's an adjective I don't use lightly. We need more decency among Republicans.

And on some core issues, he is right. He is right that spending - especially on entitlements and defense - is way out of control. Unlike his peers, he had the balls to say so when Bush and Cheney were wrecking the country's finances, and rendering us close to helpless when the Great Recession came bearing down. Alas, he lacks the kind of skills at compromise, moderation and restraint that once defined conservatism and now seems entirely reserved for liberals. But who else in this field would? Romney would have to prove his base cred for his entire presidency. Gingrich is a radical utopian and supremely nasty fantasist.

I don't believe Romney or Gingrich would cut entitlements as drastically as Paul. But most important, I don't believe that any of the other candidates, except perhaps Huntsman, would cut the military-industrial complex as deeply as it needs to be cut. What Paul understands - and it's why he has so much young support - is that the world has changed. Seeking global hegemony in a world of growing regional powers among developing nations is a fool's game, destined to provoke as much backlash as lash, and financially disastrous as every failed empire in history has shown.

I'm supremely grateful to Rep. Paul that he's not an Obama-hater. He's a gent, which is more than I can say for every other GOP Presidential candidate, other than Gov. Jon Huntsman (who should keep spending as little as possible in his training run in prep for 2016). Romney is establishment trash, with no vision for running a compelling campaign, let alone a Presidency. And Gingrich is anti-establishment trash, all for him, grifter class. His hypocrisy has more integrity than Romney's. It's like Tony Soprano -- this is what he does.

Obama-Paul. A tighter race than either Willard or Newton?

Peace Pipe

Right and Left can work together for the public good in D.C.:

Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.) and Rep. Ron Paul (R-Texas) will introduce legislation on Thursday to end the federal ban on marijuana and let the states decide whether to legalize it.

“The legislation would limit the federal government’s role in marijuana enforcement to cross-border or inter-state smuggling, allowing people to legally grow, use or sell marijuana in states where it is legal,” according to the Marijuana Policy Project, which advocates for pot legalization. “The legislation is the first bill ever introduced in Congress to end federal marijuana prohibition.”

High time, I'd say.

Crazy Like on Fox

Is the GOP fragmenting before our eyes, or is this a process by which they eventually unite behind, say, former Utah Governor John Huntsman?

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich is Republican Partying like it's 1995, doing his best to appeal to the red meat, most cranky and insulting individuals in his party, but is also rejecting the Paul Ryan Medicare elimination plan. Which John Boehner now claims he's resurrecting with a new "message"...after his House GOP freshmen begged Presdent Obama in a three-page letter to let them be forgiven for having voted for the wildly unpopular Ryan budget plan.

Former Governor Mitt Romney is losing the support of GOP elites, who are finally realizing what we've known all along: unelectable due to his Massachusetts health care reform success (yes, that's how crazy his party is) as well as his appearance of either phoniness or the aloofness of wealth.

Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the next Mitt Romney and the pre-John Huntsman, except that he's acting like Hamlet (or Mario Cuomo) about making a decision, possibly due to issues with his wife, which is also (x3) an issue for Newt Gingrich.

Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) is now running and telling everyone he would not have voted for the 1964 Civil Rights Act on property rights grounds (generally libertarian utopianism) and compares both Social Security and Medicare to slavery. Yes, comparing the institution of forced servitude and genocide with making sure we don't have poverty-stricken grandmothers like we did before these programs were enacted.

Donald Trump...is a contingency over at NBC, which would probably like to replace him in his own series anyway.

And former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee's "heart says no" (as in I just bought a really huge new house and love doing my TV show platform to pay for it). I assumed that as he bought the multi-million dollar home and has been putting weight back on again (business meals?) he wasn't running.

My father used to say that you have to be slightly crazy to want to be President. It's that kind of job. Does this make Mike Huckabee now the most sane of the top tier viable Republican Presidential candidates?

And what does that say about the 2011 Republican Party?

The Other One

Of all the Republican Presidential aspirants who participated in the pre-nomination debates, the only one I found myself agreeing with regularly was Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX).

Paul, of libertarian bent, was opposed to the Iraq War as well as Cheney-led curtailments of freedom under the Patriot Act et al. So while I agree with Paul on a number of very big issues, most importantly that the U.S. follow George Washington's lead to trade with all but stay out of entangling foreign wars, I'm generally in disagreement with him regarding government spending -- he wants to slash it to the bone, which I hold is not a responsible or suited response to the modern world.

However, what Ron Paul does have that the Republican party desperately needs -- and won't get from Gov. Palin, no matter how many post-loser Election interview she does -- is a consistent, comprehensible philosophy. Leaders can come and go but a philosophy can mature, prevail. Think Goldwater to Reagan. Or Robert Kennedy to Barack Obama.

Paul espouses in a CNN commentary he just wrote:

• Limited government power

• A balanced budget

• Personal liberty

• Strict adherence to the Constitution

• Sound money

• A strong defense while avoiding all undeclared wars

• No nation-building and no policing the world

I believe that the under-analyzed aspect of last week's election is Obama's philosophy, which is certainly not Marxism but does call for a responsible society, on both the governmental and personal level. While the government becomes an instrument of the Common Good, it does not reach into your television to turn it off during homework hours -- that's your job, albeit preached by Presidential example.

While the GOP casts about for some new packaging to somehow revive their party, Paul is offering something already made. If he can somehow turn his core of committed libertarian activists into the foundation of at least a mini-movement, I believe they could win a Republican Presidential nomination, whether it is Paul or a figure with less built-in loathing by his own party. And it could be a real threat to win, again if properly organized.

After all, who on the left could disagree with this passage from his commentary:

The Republican Congress never once stood up against the Bush/Rove machine that demanded support for unconstitutional wars, attacks on civil liberties here at home, and an economic policy based on more spending, more debt, and more inflation -- while constantly preaching the flawed doctrine that deficits don't matter as long as taxes aren't raised.

On the other hand, I have yet to be convinced that we should, per Rep. Paul, eliminate the Departments of Education, Agriculture, Commerce, Energy, Homeland Security, Health and Human Services, and Housing and Urban Development.

But I bet a lot of Americans would be open to the argument. Especially now.

Which gives upcoming President Barack Obama a very, very slim window to prove his argument in action.

Streamroller Building

Two new polls out for New Hampshire, Barack up either 38%-26% over Hillary, or 37%-27%. Somewhere in the range of a 14-point jump in forty-eight hours. Nice.

His strategy has bested hers, plain and simple. Her machine is showing the first pulls at the seams as donors go what the hell and her campaign head, pollster Mark Penn (has worked for, oh yeah, Blackwater) looks like the central failure. Letting Obama take the mantle of change while they played experience. Misunderestimating the emerging civic-minded Millenial Generation that Obama nailed through Facebook.

Good stuff from the New Hampshire debate tonight, much better format and better with just four great candidates.

Here's how Obama beats her on change.

Here's a great longer segment, where Clinton makes her best argument for actually having accomplished things in office, and John Edwards runs interference for Barack Obama.

Here's just a bunch of great Edwards clips from the debate -- really seemed the most rested and happy of all of them. Makes you wish he hadn't been a VP candidate under Kerry four years ago, might mean it can't happen now.

I can't bring myself to link to anything from the Republican debate. It's just not about anything the majority of Americans are thinking about. Ron Paul makes the most sense on foreign policy. Huckabee is the only other candidate who listens to Paul respectfully. Romney takes hits from all. McCain throws in a little old guy straight talk on pharmaceutical companies. Rudy again uses the word "perverted" with regard to radical Muslim thought.

You want real?

Here's Obama's barber shop.

Political Partying

Very funny parody thanks to a faithful reader -- the latest Ron Paul Money Bomb!

Last big New Hampshire debates this weekend. Dems are Obama vs. Edwards vs. Clinton vs. Richardson. Hillary getting booed at Dem dinner tonight. Obama riding the big mo, rocking the house:

The crowd goes absolutely berserk. And in his crescendo moment, he says that if New Hampshire votes for him on Tuesday, “you and I will heal this nation and repair the world and finally have an America that we can believe in again _ in four days time.”

One tiny anecdote will tell you how this went over here. We were seated next to supporters of Mrs. Clinton. They applauded throughout Mr. Obama’s speech. Said one: “He almost changed my mind.”

Rock on.

Wild Times

There's suddenly a flurry of action at the end of 2008. I can't hope to cover or even tie together on short notice all that's happening in our political America just this week -- two days.

The FISA vote -- Sen. Christopher Dodd (D-CT) has been staunch and articulate on protecting the U.S. Constitution, threatening to filibuster and forcing Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) to pull the bill from the floor. Dodd has been a total hero, and while I don't know if it will significantly improve his Presidential bid, it makes him the #1 pick for a new, progressive Majority Leader.

Dodd made Orrin Hatch break down into sad nonsense. The bottom line as Ted Kennedy said:

The President has said that American lives will be sacrificed if Congress does not change FISA. But he has also said that he will veto any FISA bill that does not grant retroactive immunity. No immunity, no FISA bill. So if we take the President at his word, he's willing to let Americans die to protect the phone companies.

Not so fun to remember that they are still President, even if the Primary Season sometimes makes us forget.

But the really huge decision affecting us all, the one designed by Rupert Murdoch et al with this Republican Administration to control all of the news we receive by television, radio and print all in one market. And if the market, like most, has only one newspaper, guess who's going to control the agenda?

FCC Chairman Kevin Martin cast the deciding vote to allow monopolistic territorial media control by major corporations:

Free Press: FCC Chairman Kevin Martin is ignoring the public will and defying the U.S. Senate. His decision to gut longstanding ownership rules shows once again how the largest media companies — with their campaign contributions and high-powered lobbyists — are corrupting the policymaking process at the expense of local news coverage and independent voices.

“Martin’s FCC relied on slanted research and a rigged process to reach today’s preordained outcome — local media wrapped in a bow for Tribune, News Corp., Gannett and all the rest.

John Kerry's talking about freezing FCC funding in retaliation, not sure how much that will do with the horse already over the gate.

It's clear to me that the only candidate who's just all out declaring themselves the people's warrior to beat back our almost medieval global corporations, get our Constitutional rights and help America save itself. There's things I like about the others, but Edwards is starting to do in Iowa what he's known for doing best: making the strongest closing argument.

Think about it, three lawyers. Can Obama or Hillary do what Edwards did in courtrooms for huge verdicts?

Meanwhile, Blackwater, no joke, shot to death the The New York Times' dog in Iraq, and Ron Paul reveals exquisite literary taste when he calls a spade a spade.

Crocodile Mitt

Having previous made a disgrace of himself and his family by equating his five able-bodied sons working to get him elected President to selfless young American soldiers dying in a war he fervently supports, Mitt Romney has once again open that can of bullshit.

Mitt's been getting misty-eyed in Iowa recalling a run-in with the coffin of a dead soldier in Boston's Logan Airport:

"The soldiers that I was with stood at attention and saluted," Romney told employees at Insight Technology Inc., a company that makes infrared optical equipment for U.S. troops. "And I put my hand on my heart, and tears begin to well in your eyes, as you can imagine in a circumstance like that. I have five boys of my own. I imagined what it would be like to lose a son in a situation like that."

But you won't. In fact, Mitt, the really telling part of your little emotimoment is when you say, "This is a nation which is united."

No, Mitt, not when the rich aren't vested in the very war their class seeks to profit from with the lives of other fellow citizens, without any risk of their own. This is John Edwards' Two Americas. Because only a fool or a liar doesn't recognize exactly how un-united we Americans are these days, save those of us united against the current leadership and it's enabling followers.

So with Giuliani sidelining himself with his infidelity and avarice, that leaves Mitt as the resident liar. The GOP Presidential race appears to be coming down to Romney, Mike Huckabee, John McCain and Ron Paul.

Huckabee has the smooth screen presence of a practiced pastor, starting to feel a little snake oily, like here in his confident, Christianist commercial for...Christmas. With emphasis on the Christ.

I give Mike credit for taking the old school, religious, non-materialistic position on Christmas, the one the wingers and their pundits claim we need re-instilled but please don't stop the shopping. On the other hand, this is a seriously chilling signal that Huckabee cannot for a second be trusted to keep church out of state. Is that the message he really wanted to send? And will any more perceptive Christians turn against him for using Christmas as a political tool?

Then there's the old folks club, today featuring John McCain and his latest endorsee, Sen. Joe Lieberdouche. The odious Joe, it turns out, just wanted to be relevant. See, it turns out he didn't endorse a Democratic candidate for President because none of them wanted him.

That leave Ron Paul, who's at about 6% in the national polls, but has a base so fired up by his combination of anti-War Constitutionalism and outright Libertarianism, that he's raising the most impressive stack of money amongst the GOP field. This isn't like Romney propping up his campaign with his own or his family's money. This isn't buying the nomination.

But expect that with such a war chest and such committed supporters, Ron can trail in the early states and still play through to the end.

I was on the Santa Monica Promenade yesterday when a parade of Ron Paul supporters, led by Revolution-drag fife & drum, walked right up the middle, passing out literature, the otherwise normal looking individuals both making me proud to live in a democracy, and scaring me with their with their focus and organization.

It was a signal, once again, that the Ron Paul candidacy could turn out to be the big story of the GOP campaign.

And even if not now, the network going into place will have four more years to position themselves to win it all.

Two Candidates

Here's a fascinating contrast between two candidates on the Republican side of the Presidential nomination ledger. One is Rudy Giuliani, possible frontrunner, the other Ron Paul, bane of their existence.

Ex-Mayor Rudy spent the last week being mauled by his history of using NYC cops to protect his mistress. He went on Meet the Press ostensibly for damage control, but appears to have only dug his hole deeper. Maybe the most damning aspect of the interview was his propensity to giggle in response to Tim Russert's toughest questions, as if channeling Hillary Clinton's round of Sunday talk shows earlier this season. Check out the incredibly odd TPM compilation here.

On the other hand, Rep. Ron Paul gave a rather illuminating ABC News interview where he candidly responded to a range of morality-based questioning with a firm, even rational libertarian (small "l") philosophy. As Paul has said, while he is certainly flawed, the philosophy isn't, and will have its day.

Hard to disbelieve him watching this.

Truth Will Out

Maybe the biggest story developing in U.S. politics is how the Republican Party, such as it has grown to be constituted today, is re-kookifying. By which I mean that it is splintering and fragmenting again, and with each chip reveals the pieces to be fundamentally dysfunctional at best, but more often non compos mentis.

Leading the charge is "far-right wing operative and former communist agitator David Horowitz", who created something he called "Islamofascism Awareness Week" to bolster his dying speaking career. Horowitz is a leader in trying to muzzle liberal thought on campuses, in the guise of combating what he claims is a prejudice against right-wing thought.

Kooks like Horowitz seem to think that all schools should have the ideological balance reflected on Fox News. Problem is, thinking is the ideal in college study, and the modern Conservative orthodoxy has been shown as a total sham, a bankrupt ideology built on greed and fomentation of fear.

Max Blumenthal covers Horowitz at Columbia October 26th, where he even confronted him in Q&A with his own words, in which Horowitz compared his father to Mohammed Atta of that horrific 9/11 crew, all to make a circuitous ideological point.

All I can think is, does this entire Early-21st Century hole these Horowitz's and Bush/Cheneys have put us in have to be Oedipal wrecks?

Next comes the crack-up of the #1 Conservative book publishing house, Regnery Publishing, as a group of its authors sue for stolen earnings. The wingdingaling volumes include such classics as, Unfit for Command: Swift Boat Veterans Speak Out Against John Kerry, Dereliction of Duty: The Eyewitness Account of How Bill Clinton Compromised America’s National Security and Shadow War: The Untold Story of How Bush Is Winning the War on Terror.

You know, sci-fi.

It seems that Regnery owns the very book clubs it sells do at loss leader-style discounts. According to The New York Times:

Mr. Miniter said that meant that although he received about $4.25 a copy when his books sold in a bookstore or through an online retailer, he only earned about 10 cents a copy when his books sold through the Conservative Book Club or other Eagle-owned channels. “The difference between 10 cents and $4.25 is pretty large when you multiply it by 20,000 to 30,000 books,” Mr. Miniter said. “It suddenly occurred to us that Regnery is making collectively jillions of dollars off of us and paying us a pittance.” He added: “Why is Regnery acting like a Marxist cartoon of a capitalist company?”

What's funny about this statement is that Regnery is actually acting like any other hyper-capitalist GOP mechanism, vertically integrating and taking advantage of a monopolistic opportunity in the marketplace that exploits elements of the creator's contract to maximize profits. Even if it screws the creator.

Jillions vs. pittance. Which side of that Hobbesian stick would anyone want to be on?

What's koo-koo is that for all the schaudenfreude, but per Kevin Drum:

But if a conservative is a liberal who's been mugged, what do you call a conservative who's come face to face with the naked face of vertically integrated capitalism?

And my final favorite re-kookifying is actually a case of a kook making so much sense he makes his Party look positively kooky running away from him.

I used to fear Former Governor Mike Huckabee, who could still run away with the GOP Presidential nomination. Only now I think Huckabee would have to shuck even harder than he has to absorb Ron Paul's followers.

Rep. Paul (R-TX) is the bummer guest at the Republican Party's party, the guy who actually makes more sense on the Iraq War and its relationship to our U.S. Constitution than some of the Democratic candidates (Edwards and Dodd excepted). While you may not agree with Paul on this other Libertarian ideas (abolishing the IRS and Dept. of Education, cutting virtually all Federal regulations) they adhere to a consistent Constitutional approach, one that treats the Framers with a hell of a lot more respect and intellectual coherence than the Federalist Society cabal.

But looky here, Paul's campaign/supporters somehow organized up an excellent p.r. moment, when they all made their donations on Guy Fawkes day to the impressive tune of a $4.2MM one day haul. Nice work! The Guy Fawkes business has been criticized in relation to the British celebration -- capturing the man who was about to blow up Parliament -- but is really just an appropriate reference to graphic novel/movie V for Vendetta.

Kooky.

But already making the standard storyline Republicans kook-out in fear, trying to make you believe it's not really catching on.

The reality is that Rep. Paul's philosophy is very appealing and, I expect, will grow a following that may not even crest until 2012 or beyond. With the standard GOP philosophy discredited by all but the most hardcore ideologues or bloodsuckers, there's an opening for a concise, fiscally conservative, pro-habeas corpus, non-interventionalist philosophy. I wouldn't be surprised if Paul isn't a force at the Republican Convention -- maybe even winning a few states.

Will a Democratic candidate evince a consistent and succinct enough philosophy to lock in a win for this next Presidential election?

If I were one of them, I'd take a cue from Rep. Paul and start here.