He's speaking at the Wesleyan graduation, but he's speaking to every class of 2008 student in America:
With the McCain campaign in rolling disarray and likely praying that a Vice Presidential choice will organize it for them (all the main contenders are governors, i.e. execs), I hereby predict that against what Obama is stirring in our emerging civic generation (and the coming unity which I believe most Democrats will accept with relief), casting a vote of November 4th for Sen. John McCain will seem like voting assisted suicide for America.
That may not be fair to Sen. McCain, who is quite alive and the best choice the Republicans had this year. Not my fault. It will literally start to feel like death vs. life, and while the former will have its usual fans, it will not stand a chance against Obama.
Here's another wild prediction: This man will serve time in jail. Maybe it'll take a few years. But he will do his stint, and probably make some pretty good contacts in there.
Not so wild: she's going to have to seriously rebuild bridges if she wants to still stay connected to the one constituency that has ever elected her to public office.
What's been happening the past two weeks is that Obama has not just pivoted to McCain, his campaign has pivoted to the calendar. The three important dates are the Democratic Convention on August 25-28 in Denver, the Republican Convention on September 1-4 in Minneapolis-Saint Paul, and the first Tuesday in November. The Clinton campaign has been trying to externally stall this, but now it's no longer about the math, it's about the calendar, which means it's about the Party. And the Obama campaign, with superior strategy, organization and candidate, has begun stepping up to organize the Party. Should Sen. Clinton or any external force derail this current trajectory, it's the only way they can lose in the Fall.
What the Clintons should be thinking about now, and hopefully someone in her campaign is, is what role they want to negotiate for at the Convention. Not demand. Not if they know what's good for them. Not if they don't want to go down in history as the couple that took down the Party. Not if Bill ever wants to go back to his office in Harlem. Not if Hillary ever wants to be re-elected as Senator from New York.
I predict that the only way it works for either of them is if they appear onstage with Barack Obama. I predict you will see (a) Hillary Clinton welcoming Barack Obama onstage, or (b) Bill Clinton joining Barack Obama onstate, or (c) Barack and Michelle and Bill and Hillary onstage together at the end of the Convention, the night of the 24th, possible bonus points with all three daughters together as well (big win). Show that the families play well together. Reprise with Bill and Barack appearing before African-American audiences as Hillary Clinton does her black church tour in support of Obama.
Okay, maybe these last predictions are too wild. Maybe Hillary Clinton, after losing the nomination, doesn't want to go back to the Senate. Maybe she guts it out, but since there was only Plan A (she wouldn't be coming back to the Senate after this year, except when visiting from the White House) her heart isn't in being one of one hundred.
Maybe she and Bill were okay with losing the $9-20 million because they knew they could make it back quickly no matter what happened, what with book deals and maybe TV now.
Maybe she hasn't thought of VP or anything else. Not even, really, Governor. I mean, would she accept Mayor of New York? Arguably the second biggest job in the country?
With this calendar in mind, there are three things the Obama and McCain campaigns each have to do. They have to orchestrate the Convention a scant three months from now. They have to harness the full potential of their money-raising machines. They have to execute a (hopefully) long-gestated plan for earning the most votes in the Electoral College.
Obama's campaign on this last one is a 50-state strategy. Okay, maybe 48 -- West Virginia and Kentucky may be too Appalachian for him to have any chance to win. But it would only seem foolish if he didn't have the ability to raise enough resources to do it.
And so far, that doesn't seem to be a problem at all.
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