Best Picture
Avatar
Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
Best Supporting Actress
Mo'Nique, Precious
Best Director
Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker
Best Adapted Screenplay
Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air
Best Animated Feature
Up
Best Actress is the only one where I have some conflicting thoughts. The play here would be Bullock in a new signature role, a la Julia Roberts in Erin Brockovich, rewarding both someone popular in town (helping with Crash etc.) who's had a great box office year for an older actress, and also giving a nod to those non-coastal states which came out in droves for this movie.
On the flip side, the picture is not seen as very sophisticated, and may not impress the Hollywood crowd, particularly actors. That opens it up for Carey Mulligan in An Education or Meryl Streep in Julia & Julie. While the Academy loves to reward ingenues, it is usually in the Supporting Actress category, and while Mulligan is certainly good, she doesn't give a real powerhouse performance and has zero track record besides this movie. Nor is her face as yet as memorable as, say, a young Audrey Hepburn to whom she has been compared. A few more good roles and she may win, but I'm doubtful this movie will be rewarded with such a big award.
As for Ms. Streep, she could win by default, sort of a late career achievement award for being a box office sensation at age 60. The role is Oscar bait inasmuch as she's playing a real life character, with bonus points for playing someone we've seen on TV so much (back then) so well that you forget the original. The strike against her is that since she's only half the movie, isn't it like giving the heftiest acting Oscar for half a performance?
Choosing Bullock solves a lot of problems. And Meryl may have another great one left in her. Who would doubt it? Or more than one great one -- half a dozen. And in more Oscar-worthy fare.
In any case, I always find it useful to make the picks long before the nominations are announced and my opinion can be swayed. The Oscars work by tried and true rules: Jeff Bridges wins in an underwatched picture because he's overdue and the only real competition, Clooney, has won recently, albeit in a Supporting role, but a weightier one. Waltz is the nod to Tarantino and the Weinsteins and is the way Oscar likes to dole out rewards to guests from around the world in witty, standout performances. Mo'Nique gives Precious it's gold, acknowledging the power and importance of that rather smaller picture, Bigelow wins the first female Directing Oscar for her profoundly suspenseful yet grounded in a big, salient reality work. Reitman's movie gets the indie attitude Best Picture consolation prize (as did his Juno), Boal gets the only other major double for his suspenseful yet grounded in a big, salient reality screenplay. Up beats Fantastic Mr. Fox because it's bigger of heart and more soaring of vision, and because it may get a Best Picture nomination (with 10 slots this weird year).
Which brings us to Avatar. As longtime readers of Nettertainment may recall, Best Picture is a misnomer, as the Academy instead bestows their top prize on "Most Picture" -- the movie that best combines huge spectacle with huge emotion. When there's no film that bridges that divide you find smaller movies winning, as Big Heart beats Big Empty Spectacle every time.
From what I hear about Avatar, it has a heart, kind of a liberal one as well, and since it's a game-changer on the technical/visionary front, it is now the front runner for Most Picture. The split with Best Director will come from the impression that it may be a bigger technical than emotional achievement -- i.e. just enough emotion to win the big prize, not enough to get the Directing award. In addition, you have a first-time-ever story of ex-spouses up against each other, with Cameron's ex-wife Bigelow a perfect choice to split producing (Best Picture) and directing honors with her ex-husband, everybody wins.
Plus it'd be nice to see a woman win that award FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OSCAR HISTORY.
There you have it; you read it here first.
No comments:
Post a Comment