Thursday, February 10, 2011


It's not politically correct, but half the time I read or say Hosni Mubarak's first name I go Great White North and think of "Hosed!" like I'm on SCTV. But the Eqyptian people truly got hosed today by their incalcitrant dictator. He could have given it up, the regime could have given him up, but he dug in, whether with their ascent or because his $70B family holdings makes him @ #15 worldwide.

The crowd is pissed and the world is with them. Who will really want to kill a ton of protesters defending this 84 year-old rich man who's had more than his allotted time? He's older than his main enemy, the Internet. And almost all of the Egyptian people.

Some analysis by Anthony Bubalo:

There are three explanations for this characteristic, but still remarkable, display of stubbornness, and in fact elements of all three combined may explain what is occurring:

  1. The President and those in the regime still loyal to him, including Vice-President Suleiman, are truly deluded. It is amazing to think that this group really might believe that the President's 'concessions' would get people off the streets. But, given how the regime has repeatedly misread the protests to date, this is a plausible explanation.

  2. The regime is preparing for something really ugly. There have been increasing reports that the army (not just the police or state security) has been brutalizing protesters, which is undermining the popular image of the military as neutral. Much depends now on the interpretation of the military high command's move hours before Mubarak's speech. It issued a very ambiguous statement titled 'Communique number one' which referred to its decision to 'remain in continuous session to consider what procedures and measures that may be taken to protect the nation, and the achievements and aspirations of the great people of Egypt.' This was initially read as something akin to the military taking over, but it could also be interpreted as preparation for a more repressive move.

  3. There is a serious rift within the regime. The expectations that Mubarak was going to resign were in part fueled by members of the regime, including the head of the ruling party, Hussam Badrawi. It may even be that the original interpretation of 'Communique number one' was correct and the military was genuinely expecting Mubarak to stand down. This would mean a very serious breech has now opened, not just between the military and Mubarak but also between the military (specifically the Defence Minister, Field Marshall Tantawi) and Vice-President Suleiman. My gut tells me that this is what is happening, but it is very hard to be sure. The key signal will be how the military reacts now: 'Communique number two' should be very interesting.
Here's the response in Tahrir Square:

Here's the people:

The corrupt past vs. the promise of the future. If it were a democracy, he's have been long gone.

No comments: