Those Funny Candidates and the Convention

Gotta love Michele Bachmann Turner Overdrive:

According to a tweet from NBC News’ Jamie Novogrod, Bachmann responded to the recent raiding of the British embassy in Iran, by saying that if she was President, she would close down the U.S. embassy there.

There’s just one problem: The U.S. has not had an embassy in Iran ever since the Iranian hostage crisis, when revolutionaries from the budding Islamic state held 52 Americans for 444 days.

But that was so long ago, how is she expected to remember??

How about Rick Perry White:

The Associated Press carried the following report on a speech he gave to a crowd at Saint Anselm college in New Hampshire:

[H]e appealed to students who will be at least 21 before Election Day to vote for him. As for those younger than 21, he merely asked them to work hard on his behalf. Doesn’t he want their votes, too? It turns out Perry didn’t know or had forgotten that the voting age in America is 18. The flub caused some whispers in the crowd.

No biggie. In Texas what really matters is the drinking age!

And, finally, Jon Stewart goes all out on Herman "Adam Raised A" Cain, who finally gets nailed on the consensual affair:

The Daily Show

Bachmann was never a serious contender, she just had her flash paper moment before confirming to the Republican electorate exactly what everyone else has known for years. She's not a reliable in the political sense. Or the honesty sense.

Cain was another flash, maybe on route to a Vice Presidential candidacy (take that, Barry Obama!) but that won't happen now. Oooh yeah.

And Perry is most interesting of them all, because he's a very successful politician in Texas, the second largest state in terms of both population and landmass, right near the end of the qualifying period he came riding high to save the day, and all leading up to this, earlier in the year, David Axelrod and the Obama Campaign was always very excited whenever anyone mentioned Perry, then not on the heavy radar, as a possible candidate.

It clear that the Obama Campaign was relishing the idea of running against Rick Perry. And maybe they knew something that wasn't general knowledge, like how much Rove and the Bush people hate Perry going back to when he was Lt. Governor under W. Because his implosion as like a series of Japanese nukes going off one after each other, the last revealingly stupid moment just getting to the dying embers before he did something else even more obviously not ready for any 3:00am calls.

We'll miss these clowns when they're gone for the race, but they'll be sure to pop back up again at the GOP Convention next summer, and if Newt does indeed win, or Ron Paul (which would be the smartest Republican choice, the apotheosis of Ayn Randianist), they'll get Administration positions. I always thought Herman Cain was running for Secretary of Commerce, anyway.

Newt will be funny in a different way -- he's got such a sure sense of self, he can instantly rationalize his way out of any of his shenanigans. I think Newt vs. President Barack would be a classic -- Newt as replay/last gasp of the 1990's vs. an Obama who looks all the more young and together because of the contrast. Newt shut down government and then failed to even make that work. Barack has been working his ass off to make government work, from healthcare to terror defense. His gotten a bill passed and taken out Bin Laden et al.

Could he possibly beat Newt by ten percentage points (55%/45%) or better? Could Newt make John McCain look like an Electoral College overachiever?

As for Mitt, don't worry about him:

As Mr. 1%, I now don't expect him to win the nomination -- unless he turns his trajectory around very, very quickly, and not just with the Bush wing of establishment old-school, but with the rank and file Republicans. Remember, if Mitt becomes President, the clock turns back a generation.

Then there's one other possibility. If the Tea Party is strong enough, and Newt manages to damage his electability profoundly (I say 70% chance) by the Convention, you could see a true political rarity, the brokered convention, most famously held by the 1924 Dems, torn apart by the rural/urban Prohibition conflict. In this case it's the Reagan deal with the Southern Religious Right, come home to roost in Tea Party garb, versus the money side, the hawks and the hardcore Libertarians. Aside from the hawks, the other two can get along on the Libertarian cry for smaller government.

Which is exactly what the Paulites a waiting to have happen.

Clowntime Still Ending

Here's yesterday's GOP frontrunner attempting to recall U.S. foreign policy:



Herman, we hardly knew ye. Good luck on the rest of your book tour.

Just like every two weeks, there's a new GOP frontrunner. I kid you not.

Newt.

Clowntime is (not quite) Over

Herman Cain is executing a business plan, not running for President. Per Jonathan Chait:

The plan involves Cain raising his profile as a conservative personality, which he can monetize through motivational speaking, book sales, talk shows, and other media. Cain’s selling point is that he’s a black conservative who can capitalize on the sense of white racial victimization that has mushroomed during the Obama era. Accordingly, Cain assures conservatives that they are not racist, as proven by their support for him. Indeed, it is the liberals who are racist, as evidenced by their opposition to Cain.

If Cain were campaigning to be president, the scandal would hurt him. Since he is instead campaigning to boost his profile, it will help him.

Cain is exploiting a loophole which allows a person to declare their candidacy for president, and then attract free media coverage and participate in nationally televised debates simply because the media can’t prove that they’re not really trying to win.

And thus Herman Cain enters that special class of Republican, the Grifter class. He's out there in full-throated competition with Sarah Palin, Ann Coulter, Sean Hannity, Newt Gingrich and the rest competing for the Conservative dollar. And more power to him. Since, barring major catastrophe, the GOP are going to lose the 2012 Presidential Election to President Barack Hussein Obama, why not let the reality TV show run its course.

Just how clownish is Herman Cain? Here's a video covering the life, so far, of his sexual harassment scandal, which I agree will not harm him even if it hasn't ended yet:

As Elvis Costello once sang,

Clowntime is over
Time to take cover
While others just talk and talk
Somebody's watching where the others don't walk
Clowntime is over

Whatever that means, it seems to make particular sense for Mr. Cain...and perhaps the rest of his GOP Presidential wannabes.

Send in the Clowns

It's Mitt's to lose. Rick is shrinking next to him, the size difference, better hair (for the first time, Rick looks like he's wearing a toup), Herman Cain is entertaining and running for Secretary of Commerce, Michelle Bachmann is disappearing, Newt and Rick are hanging in by dint of experienced stubbornness, Ron Paul will always have a seat at the Primary table, who knows what speaking spot the Party Elders give him at the Convention.

The idea of Obama running against Mitt Romney for ten months is hilarious when you think about it. Presidential elections are, in large part, for who you want to see on TV for four years. The lead role in the biggest serial of all. I'll be shocked if Mitt doesn't wear out his welcome by May.

He holds his own here, but oh that smiling scold:

Astonishing how little John Huntsman has mattered. It's not that he's too left, it's that he was spectral, a ghost of a candidate, does not bode well for 2016 for him. He even disappeared tonight altogether, not at the debate. Goodbye.

Watch Perry flop so quickly, even with $17 million in his Q3 haul, is more gratifying than I ever expected. Lots of hat.

$9.99

Herman Cain, self-made Godfather Pizza CEO, has never held national office but he is now leading in new GOP polls for their Presidential nomination. Is he just this week's Not-Mitt or a force to be, eventually, reckoned with?

His style is affable and he seems to believe what he says even when, as he's also said, he has no evidence to back it up. Key to his appeal is the simplicity of his message, something every good CEO learns to craft and repeat...endlessly.

He's the 9-9-9 guy. 9% income tax, 9% national sales tax, 9% corporate tax. Yep, flat and regressive. You make less than $120k/year, you pay more taxes.

He says he "didn't get it off a pizza box" when Jon Huntsman suggested that was the source. In fact, it may come from the videogame, Sim City.

He'd be a coup for the GOP, a black candidate to run against Obama, insulating them from charges of racism, maybe worth it if the economy picks up and Obama starts to look hard to beat. Take a look at the guy -- even when he's wrong, he's affable:

After all...who doesn't like pizza?

The Incredible Shrinking Rick Perry

Not only has he been displaced as a leading candidate for the GOP Presidential nomination by Herman Cain, he's getting less than lackluster reviews for his debate performance and has topped it off post-debate by forgetting in which century we had our Revolutionary War.

Off by two.

Obama vs. MItt

Willard Mitt Romney, born 1947, would be a generation shift as President from Barack Hussein Obama, who was born in 1961. From Gen-Between to Baby Boomer again, 64 years old to Obama's 50. And it is increasing looking like he'll be Obama's opponent next November.

The GOP always gives it to the next guy in line, and it's Mitt. He ran last time, is less robotic this time, seasoned, has the Bush establishment behind him that's run the Party for so long. He's making his own luck -- making more ludicrous candidates who keep popping up make fools of themselves by standing his ground letting them self-destruct.

The latest is Texas Governor Rick Perry, who's been arrogant in lack of debate preparation and made some odd mistakes with the base on immigration, where I'm actually in some agreement with the candidate. Now he's in apology mode, which could be his death spiral.

And out of nowhere, last weekend's Florida Straw Poll winner, Herman "Godfather Pizza" Cain, is saying that's why he can't support Perry if he does win the nomination. Now Mitt is suddenly up over Perry in Florida Republican Primary polling. It's starting to look a whole lot like McCain's >>grumble grumble base<< march to nomination victory.

I'm wondering if Perry could become damaged goods as even a VP choice for Mitt.