The Obama/Cairo Effect

Is this the first fruit of Obama's Cairo speech recasting the role of the U.S. in the Middle East as well as the responsibilities of all conflicting parties?:

BEIRUT (Reuters) - A surprise victory in Lebanon by an anti-Syrian coalition against the Iranian-backed Hezbollah and its allies should be confirmed on Monday with the release of official results of the country's parliamentary election...

...The outcome was a blow to Syria and Iran, which support Hezbollah, and welcome news for the United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, which backs the "March 14" bloc, named after the date of a huge rally against Syria's military presence in 2005.

Hope vs. fear, bay-bee. And is this having an effect in Iran, on the upcoming Presidential election, as well?:

Reporting from Tehran -- Powerful reformists and conservatives within Iran's elite have joined forces to wage an unprecedented behind-the-scenes campaign to unseat President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, worried that he is driving the country to the brink of collapse with populist economic policies and a confrontational stance toward the West.

The prominent figures have put their considerable efforts behind the candidacy of reformist Mir-Hossein Mousavi, who they believe has the best chance of defeating the hard-line Ahmadinejad in the presidential election Friday and charting a new course for the country.

They have used the levers of government to foil attempts by Ahmadinejad to secure funds for populist giveaways and to permit freewheeling campaigning that has benefited Mousavi. State-controlled television agreed to an unheard-of series of live debates, and the powerful Council of Guardians, which thwarted the reformist wave of the late 1990s, rejected a ballot box maneuver by the president that some saw as a prelude to attempted fraud.

Some called it a realignment of Iranian domestic politics from its longtime rift between reformists and conservatives to one that pits pragmatists on both sides against radicals such as Ahmadinejad.

"Some of the supporters of Mousavi like his ideas; others don't want Ahmadinejad," said Javad Etaat, a professor of political science and a campaigner for Mousavi. "They've decided that preserving the nation is more important than preserving the government."

Even some militants in the region are responding with tentative positivity to Obama's speech.

And why not? After all, here's the first U.S. President to have personally witnessed the effects of colonialism (read his first book, both the section where he learns about his father's downward spiral in Kenyan government work as well as his stepfather's similar trajectory after initial optimism in Indonesia). Per Andrew Sullivan on the Cairo Effect:

The Middle East is addicted to its past; Obama spoke of the need to move into the future. The Middle East is fixated on conflict and identity; Obama emphasised quotidian common interests. The Middle East loves quibbles; Obama landed slap-bang in the middle of most of them and refused to budge. And driving all of it was a critical question of tone — a measured, careful and stern message of respect and realism.

The obvious critique that this was just a set of words seems to me to miss the point. An intervention begins with words because it requires the actions of others. You don’t get an addict to go into recovery by cuffing him and throwing him into an ambulance. You talk to him and his family and speak calmly about what everyone in the room knows to be true but no one will face. So, for me, the core sentence of the speech was obvious: “It is time for us to act on what everyone knows to be true.”

Maybe everyone has been waiting for change but there's yet to be a leader who can articulate it -- until now. In Israel, post-Cairo, change no longer appears optional:

United States President Barack Obama has left Israel with no alternative but to ultimately agree to the establishment of a Palestinian state, officials in Jerusalem told Israel Radio on Saturday.

Israel will be forced to acknowledge the necessity of a future Palestinian state because there are no signs that the Obama administration will yield on this issue, a source told Israel Radio.

Government sources in Jerusalem also told Israel Radio that the quicker Israel adopts the road map for peace as the preferred diplomatic initiative, the more likely it will ward off American pressure to concede to a Palestinian state within the framework of an alternative plan that is less agreeable to Israel.

Israeli Aluf Benn, writing in the newspaper Haaretz, similarly believes rightwing Prime Minister Netanyahu will have to move quickly to get ahead of the Obama steamroller:

Benjamin Netanyahu is on the wrong side of Obama's speech, with his refusal to endorse a Palestinian state and his insistence on "natural growth" in the settlements. He might have been able to soften the blow a bit had he formed a coalition with Tzipi Livni on the basis of the two-state solution. Or if, during his White House visit, he had announced that he was embracing the road map. But that's of no importance now. Before long, Netanyahu will have to deliver a speech in response to Obama, and to declare a historic change in his ideology and policy. Until then, he'll go on hoping for a miracle that will wipe the "Cairo speech" off the agenda and make it disappear into the swirling sands of Middle East diplomacy.

Okay, let's not be Pollyanna about it. Perhaps it won't work and all good will ultimately will collapse. Just one act of violence could end it all. But if history has proven anything about progress, it is that progress requires individual vision at just the right moment, convincing leadership, and accumulative tenacity in order to succeed.

There are naysayers here and abroad. In just the comments on Sullivan's opinion piece you'll find those both internationally and from the U.S. who don't believe change in the region is possible, don't believe Obama, think it's only words and they don't matter, think the Palestinians are too commited to the destruction of Israel, think Israel is to genocidal against the Palestinians, on and on and on.

But there are also plenty of comments in support of Obama, his speech and his approach. My personal favorite:

The educated young love you Obama. We do not care what the bitter previous generation think, they will be gone soon and we will be there to continue your efforts. You are the leader we dreamt of. You inspired me to continue my career and become a barrister.

Thank you.

Kazuki, Tokyo, Japan

When is Obama's first trip to Asia?

I'm looking forward to his reception there.