It is too early to assess the ultimate measure of victory: whether the President's actions have been prudent and beneficial, domestically and internationally. But by Election Day 2010, Obama will have soundly achieved many of his chief campaign promises while running a highly competent, scandal-free government. Not bad for a guy whose opponents (in both parties) for the White House suggested that he was too green in national life to know how to do the job — and whose presidency began in the midst of a worldwide economic crisis that demanded urgent attention and commanded much of his focus.
In the months ahead, the President will likely pass a financial-regulation overhaul (despite this past weekend's snags), manage the confirmation of a second Supreme Court nominee with relatively little commotion, announce the reduction of the U.S. troop level in Iraq to about 50,000, showcase the undercovered gains on education reform, take advantage of the improving economy to tout his stimulus efforts and sharpen his "Obama-Biden future vs. Bush-Cheney past" argument to help stave off massive Democratic losses in November. He also has a decent chance to pass a small-to-medium-size energy bill. True, some promises, like comprehensive immigration reform, will remain on the sidelines, but most of his major goals will be completed or well under way.
This is why I believe that no matter the generic poll numbers right now, responsible-thinking adult voters (whom I'd like to believe are in the majority, if only by a hair) will look at what the Democrats were handed at the start of 2009 and judge the President's party more kindly than seems indicated now.
There's an old saying that the final decision on whom the public will vote in as President isn't made until after the World Series. I'm betting the same for the House and Senate -- and that passing health care reform -- under President Obama's unexpected leadership -- will look like the pivotal move that saved the Democratic Party.
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