Politi-flicks: Politechnicals

The first election where mobile connectivity was a crucial factor was in 2004, when on Election Day Karl Rove could call up any precinct in America on his Blackberry anytime he wanted on Election Day itself. This meant he could direct GOTV efforts on an immediate basis, sending campaign volunteers to a suburb in some precinct to squeeze out just enough more microtargeted GOP voters.

This one on Tuesday is, I think, the first where mobile went wide, lots of text message programs for various campaigns, very useful for "Alerts!"

The next General Election, the 2008 Presidential Election, will be the one where whoever controls mobile video and social networking will win the election.

I predict this for two reasons.

Back when Bush beat Kerry a scant two years ago, there was a most illuminating segment on Charlie Rose where two writers/editors from Newsweek were talking about their unique behind-the-scenes access on both campaigns, under contract to reveal nothing until after the votes were in. These guys said they never had any doubt that Bush would win, because the GOP had an extraordinarily rapid response system, Kerry had (basically) none, and in their experience the team with the better, faster response team always won.

Think back to James Carville and George Stephanopoulos in The War Room, banging back at a steroid nasty press at the speed of thought. Then think of John Kerry failing to address the Swiftboaters ASAP.

This time around the Dems seem more plugged in, 36 hours or better with rebuttal ads. Take this Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) smear against Dem challenger John Tester, "John Tester is a Taxer". Then watch this rapid response from the Tester campaign, showcasing Democratic Governor Brian Schweitzer beating back the supposition and even betting his dog on it in, um, "Betting Jag".

The fact is that we're in another technological shift, dramatically deepening on-the-go connectivity, and the next election will have those ads we currently think of as internet video playing first on cellphones and other mobile devices, passed around in bars, on busses, in classrooms, at work.

The web will be used as a tool for individuals or organizations to manage their content and fire it out to cellphones everywhere in the country or the state or the precinct. You join affinity networks (think of how friends spam friends with political articles, links and European TV ads, blend it together) where you can opt in for Alerts! or just general update/check in cell mini-desktop apps, it's an opt-in or -out revolution and it's going to mean that more data messages get delivered more quickly to more people than ever before; highly segmented and self-microtargeted people.

Think of an election week strategy videocast you receive real-time and simultaneously as however many other campaign operatives or media outlets, on your cellular device. Think of being able to on-the-fly record parts or all of it -- to your cellular device.

The potential for political organizing seems unlimited, and the Party or campaign organization that masters it will have a decided advantage.

News is coming so fast now, the furious return of Mark Foley-style creepy closet GOP homosexuality, the entire U.S. Armed Forces declaring their debilitating lack of confidence in Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, and the Saddam Hussein verdict show poised to turn into Gettysburg. There's last minute polls and panics and surges.

Think of how even our 2006-era connectivity has affected this race. It's had so much to work with -- here are my two favorite quotes of the day, both from the NY Times, first from Adam Nagourney and Robin Toner:

"It's the worst political environment for Republican candidates since Watergate," said Glen Bolger, a Republican pollster working in many of the top races this year.

I actually remember that time, and he's right. (Only then we didn't have electronic voting.) This time the Internet has trumped the television as fulcrum of this environment.

The other, from Jeff Zeleny, concerning the sudden flowering of DNC Chairman Howard Dean's 50 State Strategy:

"These races are popping up all over the country like mushrooms," Mr. Dean said, speaking over a crackling cellphone while riding through a Republican-leaning Congressional district in Michigan. "This stuff is working faster than I thought."

Hard to pull off in two years back in the pre-Internet days. When long distance phone calls cost an arm and a leg and you waiting around for the fax to print out. Now, if anyone asks you what does the Democratic Party stand for this election, you can just link them this "National Address".

While Dean has admitted that he thinks it will take two more years to match Karl Rove's GOTV operation, he clearly made the right decision to go widely competitive and not just focus all time and money on a few battleground "swing" states.

You can never predict when some supposedly "unbeatable" candidate strangles his mistress or covers up a colleague's pedophilia.

But you could have predicted this.


As always, Politi-flicks is cross-posted to The Daily Reel.