The results are in from the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, this first test vote, and while Mitt Romney spent a load of time and money to win it, he may have hurt his cause by only winning with 31% of the vote. This is significant because other frontrunners Giuliani and McCain chose to conserve their resources and not participate, ditto crypto-candidate Fred Thompson.
To put it in perspective, back in 1999 George Bush won it with 31% as well, against very credible candidates. From Liz Mair:
In other words, Mitt Romney, playing a field uncrowded by other presidential heavyweights, only managed to pull off the same percentage as Bush did in 1999, when Bush was competing against the likes of Steve Forbes and Elizabeth Dole (who were treated as credible candidates at that time-- Patrick Ruffini notes that Steve Forbes threw millions at the straw poll in 1999, something Huckabee clearly did not do this year, and something that Romney apparently did). So, while a win for Mitt is a win, him taking 31% isn't really that much of a big deal. In some ways, when he was competing against a number of go-nowhere candidates, you might have expected him to do better.
So who actually scored at this circus-like event? The guy I originally bet on to win the nomination (before his fundraising efforts came up shallow), Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee. While I disagree with Huckabee on many issues (i.e. evolution), and can't stand when he goes with canned material like recently on Colbert, he's actually got a pulse, per this video. And he plays highly credible electric bass.
Per my post yesterday, Newt can get in and maybe even win the nomination. But, in my view, Huckabee would be the only threat in a general election. And maybe this meaningless poll is his start.
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