As the former, I think this Los Angeles Times analysis, "There are no losers in Tuesday's primaries" gets it right. Enjoy the feeling while it lasts, because as the latter I'm drawn to this passage:
Nationally, according to the Associated Press, Obama won eight in 10 black voters while Clinton won six in 10 Latinos.
Obama, though, proved once again, just as he did last month in Iowa, that many whites will vote for a black candidate. His victories in overwhelmingly white states -- Connecticut, Utah, Idaho, Minnesota and North Dakota -- along with his success among nearly half of white voters in California will help the Obama campaign convince potential donors and voters in future contests in the coming weeks that he can go the distance.
Nationally, according to an AP analysis, Obama won four in 10 white voters, an improvement from the South Carolina primary last month, when he won just about a quarter of whites.
Obama didn't score some unrealistic knockout blow tonight. His name recognition is just starting to near hers, as Edwards so graciously left the field open for him.
I'd be lying if I said I'm not disappointing with my adopted state of California, but we've been hearing for a week how upwards of 25% of votes were cast early, and despite the meme of Obama losing because of the Hispanic vote, the fact is that he got creamed much worse by the Asian-American vote, which certainly helped Clinton in San Francisco. He just hasn't connected along cross-racial lines, but is drawing increasing number of white voters. Kos calls it "Huge Night for Obama":
California is looking like it might head SUSA's way, so that'll be good news for Hillary. But the rest of the night is bleak. She didn't exceed expectations anywhere. She lost states she led big in just a few weeks ago. She's hurting for money. The calendar up ahead is tailor made for Obama. The momentum is there.
And hey, look at that -- Obama just took the lead in Missouri. The rest of the counties are Hillary counties, so this might still swing back her way. But wow, did the morons who called this one early at MSNBC and Politico blew this one.
In fact, her own campaign jumped the gun on declaring Missouri. Obama ended up with a remarkable 13 states, Hillary with 8, with New Mexico too close to call. Sure, she's got the two big prizes, but even if she gets NM Obama did 38% better on state decisions, and from all over the country -- including her backyard, Connecticut. MSNBC even predicted, depending on CA, Barack being up on delegates after tonight.
His speech, per The New York Times:
“Our time has come,” Mr. Obama declares. “Our movement is real and change is coming to America.” And he presses his unity theme, quoting Lincoln: A house divided cannot stand.
Mr. Obama gets tough on Mrs. Clinton in his speech. He says she’s been running “an outstanding race,” but adds: “This fall we owe the American people a real choice.” It’s clever because he could be talking about the Republican nominee but he’s also talking about Mrs. Clinton. He portrays himself as presenting the most clear choice between change and “more of the same” and between looking backwards and looking forward. It’s about having a debate with “the other party” about who has the most experience in Washington “or who is most likely to change Washington.”
Well, Mr. Obama’s wasn’t a victory speech, and neither was Mrs. Clinton’s. They’re both waiting for California, as we are, night owls.
Clinton may be running out of money -- she doesn't raise on losses like Obama does, has far fewer but bigger donors than Obama meaning many are already maxxed out, and only want to bet on a winner who can grant them favors anyway. She has a core of loyal rank and file support, and I understand their reasons for supporting her, whether loyal to the Clintons for all they did in the 90's, or women bonded to Hillary's narrative by their own stories and experience with late 20th Century struggles.
But the money issue has led her to call for weekly debates, something a frontrunner wouldn't push, but she needs as much free publicity as possible. Unfortunately, these debates are on Fox News, the network John Edwards led in boycotting due to their function as the ruthless propaganda arm of the Republican Party.
She was courting Rupert Murdoch for several years, and while he seems to have strung her along, his flagship New York Post endorsed Obama instead, so maybe she's courting him again, maybe in a somehow preordained narrative to turn the whole News Corp against Obama before it's too late. Either way, her team must have made the assumption that they've lost the vast majority of Edwards voters, so screw those votes, all in.
Bob Cesca has warm things to say about Obama's performance:
Even with CA going decisively for Clinton, this is still a winning night for Obama based on the polling and expectations leading into the week. Obama won several surprise victories while Senator Clinton lost some states she was winning in the polls -- CT, MO and MN. Here's the thing... Clinton is way behind in cash. Obama can maintain his present clip for much longer and could potentially spend the Clintons into the ground.
Kal goes a little bit further in "Clinton Will Drop Out On March 5th" based mainly on the momentum concept:
On the eve of Super Tuesday, the national polls were clear: This race was dead even. CNN had Obama up 3. Cook had him up 6. Gallup had Clinton up 2. CBS had a tie. As of this morning, there was no front-runner in the Democratic race.
That will change after tonight. After winning the most states and the most delegates, Obama will be the front-runner. He will lead in the national polls by the end of the week. If you think Iowa and South Carolina gave Obama a bump in the polls, imagine how big of a bump he will get after winning across the country.
Yes, it seems wildly optimistic to me as well. But follow the money -- who's going to raise more off of what happened tonight?
One guy I gotta mention before signing off tonight is John McCain, who not only gave a gracious victory speech, but it's a blast. He's really earned this huge victory, to be the clear GOP frontrunner after getting slammed by elite Republicans, anti-immigration Republicans, bottoming out in the polls last summer and never forget his ridiculous horsewhipping by George and Karl eight fateful years ago. This is the McCain I still love, a funny, tough, realistic and grateful guy.
Who do you think stands the best chance against him in November?
No comments:
Post a Comment