Sunday, October 05, 2008


So here's the question (and, yes, this is dangerously hubristic, but how often might we get a chance like this?):

What state will Barack Obama win that will surprise the living hell out of everybody?

Not Virginia, not now that he's consistently polling well there. Sure, he could lose there, and North Carolina, or even Ohio or Florida, but it won't be a surprise anymore if he wins all those states, because the polling supports the possibility of his winning each as we have now entered the final month.

But, assuming neither God nor McCain bring any gamechangers, it's all trending towards the winner, feeling kind of like 1932 except that Hoover's a mean, vindictive old man with a flirty young fascist at his side. Facing an eminent bloodbath, McCain has announced that he's going negative, with virtually 100% of his media spend now on smear ads. Which has given the Obama Campaign the opening to counterattack as it now appears they have been completely prepared to do -- hello again to the (Charles) Keating 5, the disgraced Senators from the hugest financial scandal to date, 1989, starring none other than the sole Republican in the gang, Greedy McFinance:

Gotta be good for a few news cycles, and a hell of a lot more relevant than the Swiftboaty smears against Obama.

So while Starburst Palin is about to get fried like moose in Alaska when seven state employees testify in her Troopergate game stopper, Obama's exposing McCain's dangerously erratic instability, using press and events in plain sight. This may be my favorite coffin nail, I mean, ad of the entire election:

So I have no prize except citing your chosen comment name, but what state will it be? Based on today's stats at, some places where Barack is down by less than 10 points and might win, if he gets unheard of youth and out-of-the-woodwork votes, include Colorado(47/46), Missouri (48/47), Indiana (47/45) and West Virginia (50/44), but also Georgia (51/44) and Mississippi (52/44).

Oh, and my pick.

I'm betting Texas (53/43). Just because it would mean the most of all those -- 34 sweet Electoral votes and a repudiation of their very own George W. Bush.



Anonymous said...

I'm thinking Georgia; given its demographics, I've been pretty surprised that BO is polling so far behind there.

Meanwhile, believe me when I say that many journos are going to bleat and wail that bringing up Keating (something that Gramps actually did) is a gross smearjob, while attempting to tie BO to the Weathermen (yes, he was 7 yrs old) isn't.

If Gramps can't begin to turn it around this week, this election becomes a 350+ rout. (I'm happy to note that Winky is rapidly becoming an Alaska sized albatross around his neck.)

Erika said...

I'm voting for Colorado, since its the easiest, tippiest state. But Texas would give me the most vindictive pleasure. Gimme gimme!