Friday, October 10, 2008

Perfect Storm

Just like I believed Obama's earth-shaking speech at the end of the Democratic National Convention, his call-out for McCain to show himself like a man, caused McCain to flinch and choose Sarah Palin as his running mate that night, so we see McCain has once again "blinked" (as Gov. Palin has admittedly trained herself not to do) and surely in response to old allies admonishing him through the media (and one assumes in private) Thursday and Friday morning, he is trying to stuff the evil genie of violent ignorance back into the bottle:

I've already had one disagreement over whether McCain is doing this out of recognized decency (note he repeats the "family man" description, reminding attendees that Obama has children to protect), I do think it's a good thing, and not only for Obama's safety. McCain is protecting his reputation, the one that follows past his death into the history books -- pure, cleansing fear. Maybe he's even angling for a role in Obama's America. The other night Michelle Obama told Larry King that should her husband win the Presidency, America will still need John McCain to join in the effort of saving our country, and maybe she and her "Team of Rivals" talkin' husband mean it.

My guess is that after Tuesday night's trouncing in the debate, it is starting to sink in with McCain that he will most likely lose on November 4th. With his wife, Cindy, has he had the "what if" conversation by now?

Yet today even as McCain does the right thing, his McCain wildly rudderless campaign lurches in to smear Michelle Obama, violating McCain's claim that families were off limits. I honestly don't know if McCain approved this one, but it sure as hell stinks of campaign managing thug Steve Schmidt, who trained at the feet of Karl Rove but doesn't seem to have an ounce of his, dare I say, finesse. After all, it was Schmidt who pushed Gov. Palin onto the ticket.

You know, the same Gov. Palin who "unlawfully abused her power as governor by trying to have her former brother-in-law fired as a state trooper, the chief investigator of an Alaska legislative panel concluded Friday."

Ah, more Sunday morning fodder for the commentators on the McCain circus. It's going to be TiVo-worthy.

The perfect storm includes a late-Friday rumor that the Republican National Committee is essentially pulling out of the McCain campaign -- stranding them on funding, i.e. joint TV ad money. Seems those precious resources might be better spent trying to save a House or Senate seat here or there. Plant for the future rather than throw good money after bad.

On Friday Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) wouldn't even appear with McCain at a Minnesota event. He's in a mini-scandal of his own over a lobbying buying him a trip and some suits, as Democrat Al Franken finally breaks ahead of Norm in the polls. Sweet revenge for the "accidental" death of Paul Wellstone?

A perfect storm is when the McCain campaign suddenly realizes it has to fight for West Virginia (5 electoral votes). Or (no joke!) Georgia (15 electoral votes).

That's right, you have a conventional wisdom developing that Obama could do well enough to beat McCain maybe 359 to 179 in the Electoral College, a major landslide. But I'm going to go further:

Barack Obama (D) 440
John McCain (R) 98

FDR/Herbert Hoover territory. You read it here first. The economic collapse, the endless Iraq War, the absolute failure of the Republican Party, it's all a perfect storm, to be sure, but it's not just anybody at the top of the Democratic ticket and the core reason for this landslide will be the once-in-a-lifetime leadership qualities of Barack Obama.

After all, he not only predicted the error of the Iraq War and the pending mortgage crisis, he predicted the very smear they would use against him, down to the exact wording:

Hurry, November.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Your point about the RNC beginning to cut and run from Gramps' campaign leads to a very interesting question.

Assuming Obama continues to break loose and the election solidifies as a rout in the next 2 weeks, BO will have what I'd consider his first decision that would directly affect his ability to govern/legislate going forward; that is how much of his own campaign funds to redeploy to downticket races, and to which races.

As we can forget in expensive places like NYC and LA, $100K of fresh money in the last week can work wonders in most small market congressional races.

If BO is prohibitively ahead, and Gramps has basically tossed in his hand; a few million could generate another 10 or 20 houses seats on top of what's currently projected; another few could swing 1 or 2 unexpectedly competitive Senate races (like KY or MS or TX).

Think about it: The Blues Dogs and the despicable Joe Lieberman could become irrelevant overnight (Oh, happy day!)

This'll be interesting to keep an eye on.